Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC
or
"Be careful what you wish for."
August, 2021
G.D.O'Bradovich III
Realignment among the major NCAA football conferences occurs for varied reasons, ranging from the intangible, prestige, to the tangible, additional revenue. Regardless of the possible motivations, it is clear that football is the driving force behind schools moving conferences. We will examine if these moves improves either the football winning percentage or the number of conference titles.
Stassen.com was utilized for the winning percentage for the selected years and the Wikipedia articles for the conference championships.
http://football.stassen.com/records/compute-request.html
Research commenced with the year 1953, when the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) was formed and Michigan State began play in the Big 10.
The Pacific Coast Conference (PPC) was dissolved in 1959 and the Athletic Association of Western Universities (AAWU) was charted by California, UCLA, USC, and Washington. Stanford joined a month later. Washington State joined in 1962 and Oregon and Oregon State joined in 1964. The PCC and the AAWU are omitted in the analysis, as no new schools were added.
School football records for the 50 years before joining another conference.
Stassen.com was utilized for the winning percentage for the selected years and the Wikipedia articles for the conference championships.
http://football.stassen.com/records/compute-request.html
Research commenced with the year 1953, when the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) was formed and Michigan State began play in the Big 10.
The Pacific Coast Conference (PPC) was dissolved in 1959 and the Athletic Association of Western Universities (AAWU) was charted by California, UCLA, USC, and Washington. Stanford joined a month later. Washington State joined in 1962 and Oregon and Oregon State joined in 1964. The PCC and the AAWU are omitted in the analysis, as no new schools were added.
School football records for the 50 years before joining another conference.
Conference
ACC B10 ACC ACC ACC ACC ACC ACC ACC P8 P8 ACC B10 SEC SEC ACC B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 ACC ACC ACC B10 P10 P10 SEC SEC B12 B12 ACC ACC ACC B10 B10 |
Year
Joined 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1978 1978 1983 1991 1991 1991 1992 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 2004 2004 2005 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 |
School
Duke Michigan State North Carolina Virginia Maryland Clemson NC State Wake Forest South Carolina Arizona State Arizona Georgia Tech Penn State Arkansas South Carolina Florida State Oklahoma Texas Nebraska Colorado Texas A&M Texas Tech Baylor Missouri Oklahoma St Kansas Iowa State Kansas State Miami-Florida Virginia Tech Boston College Nebraska Colorado Utah Texas A&M Missouri West Virginia Texas Christian Syracuse Pittsburgh Louisville Rutgers Maryland |
Win %
0.67812 0.66707 0.59361 0.58575 0.57069 0.54525 0.48441 0.46040 0.51134 0.64588 0.54622 0.59311 0.74858 0.62797 0.50291 0.62319 0.77509 0.70414 0.70143 0.57735 0.54029 0.52004 0.51670 0.51384 0.46834 0.46455 0.40691 0.29924 0.66637 0.59982 0.56181 0.78454 0.55363 0.55009 0.57890 0.52265 0.62090 0.47429 0.54101 0.52696 0.54298 0.50446 0.49567 0.56754 |
Wins
209 264 251 247 260 231 200 175 210 298 252 310 389 337 249 293 426 386 389 306 286 278 272 269 242 239 203 154 370 325 302 474 316 311 335 294 356 263 307 298 306 280 283 12,445 |
Loses
95 125 166 170 192 190 214 207 200 160 208 210 127 197 246 174 119 159 163 222 242 256 254 254 276 277 300 366 184 215 235 128 254 254 243 268 216 292 260 267 257 275 288 9,405 |
Ties
16 27 37 32 29 32 35 22 31 15 16 17 11 13 20 16 13 11 9 15 18 15 13 19 19 20 18 8 5 11 5 6 8 4 5 12 7 9 6 10 7 6 6 654 |
Total Games
320 416 454 449 481 453 449 404 441 473 476 537 527 547 515 483 558 556 561 543 546 549 539 542 537 536 521 528 559 551 542 608 578 569 583 574 579 564 573 575 570 561 577 22,504 |
Conference
ACC B10 ACC ACC ACC ACC ACC ACC ACC P8 P8 ACC B10 SEC SEC ACC B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 ACC ACC ACC B10 P10 P10 SEC SEC B12 B12 ACC ACC ACC B10 B10 |
Year
1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1978 1978 1983 1991 1991 1991 1992 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 2004 2004 2005 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 |
School
Duke Michigan State North Carolina Virginia Maryland Clemson NC State Wake Forest South Carolina Arizona State Arizona Georgia Tech Penn State Arkansas South Carolina Florida State Oklahoma Texas Nebraska Colorado Texas A&M Texas Tech Baylor Missouri Oklahoma St Kansas Iowa State Kansas State Miami-Florida Virginia Tech Boston College Nebraska Colorado Utah Texas A&M Missouri West Virginia Texas Christian Syracuse Pittsburgh Louisville Rutgers Maryland |
Win %
0.41238 0.56946 0.52026 0.44286 0.51020 0.65389 0.52494 0.38259 0.46961 0.57791 0.52579 0.54881 0.68817 0.50824 0.51385 0.72969 0.76000 0.68770 0.71649 0.50543 0.56784 0.56634 0.42809 0.57143 0.61812 0.32993 0.41447 0.63259 0.60280 0.67411 0.54187 0.55285 0.36441 0.62295 0.67544 0.56250 0.55856 0.61062 0.39175 0.53922 0.54545 0.30120 0.37975 0.53875 |
Wins
305 428 394 338 346 514 403 285 82 291 261 251 256 184 184 260 247 218 139 93 113 175 128 112 191 97 126 198 129 151 110 68 43 76 77 63 62 69 38 55 48 25 30 7663 |
Loses
438 322 363 426 332 269 364 463 93 212 235 206 116 178 174 96 78 99 55 91 86 134 171 84 118 197 178 115 85 73 93 55 75 46 37 49 49 44 59 47 40 58 49 6552 |
Ties
16 13 8 6 8 13 15 10 6 4 8 4 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 117 |
Total
Games 759 763 765 770 686 796 782 758 181 507 504 461 372 364 361 357 325 317 194 184 199 309 299 196 309 294 304 313 214 224 203 123 118 122 114 112 111 113 97 102 88 83 79 14332 |
Last
Year 2020 2020 2020 2020 2013 2020 2020 2020 1970 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2010 2010 2011 2020 2020 2011 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 |
After joining a new conference, the aggregate winning percentage dropped from 56.75 to 53.88.
Conference
|
50 year range
|
School
|
Titles
previous 50 years |
Average years
between titles |
ACC
ACC ACC ACC ACC ACC ACC B10 ACC P8 P8 ACC SEC SEC B10 ACC B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 ACC ACC ACC B10 P10 P10 SEC SEC B12 B12 ACC ACC ACC B10 B10 |
1904
1904 1904 1904 1904 1904 1904 1904 1904 1929 1929 1934 1942 1942 1942 1943 1947 1947 1947 1947 1947 1947 1947 1947 1947 1947 1947 1947 1955 1955 1956 1962 1962 1962 1963 1963 1963 1963 1964 1964 1965 1965 1965 |
1953
1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1978 1978 1983 1991 1991 1991 1992 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 2004 2004 2005 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 |
Maryland
Virginia Wake Forest South Carolina North Carolina Duke North Carolina St Michigan State Clemson Arizona Arizona State Georgia Tech Arkansas South Carolina Penn State Florida State Texas Tech Kansas Iowa State Missouri Oklahoma St Texas A&M Colorado Baylor Kansas State Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Miami-Florida Virginia Tech Boston College Nebraska Colorado Utah Texas A&M Missouri West Virginia Texas Christian Syracuse Pittsburgh Louisville Rutgers Maryland |
2
2 NA NA 3 10 4 1 3 5 14 5 12 1 NA 3 9 2 NA 2 3 10 5 3 NA 19 20 29 9 4 1 22 5 6 9 1 10 8 7 2 8 1 7 267 |
25.00
25.00 NA NA 16.66 5.00 12.5 50.00 16.66 10.00 3.57 10.00 4.16 50.00 NA 16.66 5.55 25.00 NA 25.00 16.66 5.00 10.00 16.66 NA 2.63 2.50 1.72 5.55 12.50 50.00 2.27 10.00 8.33 5.55 50.00 5.00 6.25 7.14 25.00 6.25 50.00 7.14 5.34 |
Before changing conferences, the schools averaged a conference title a little over every five years.
Conference
|
First
Year |
Last
Year |
School
|
Years in
Conference |
Titles
|
Average years
between titles |
ACC
ACC ACC ACC ACC ACC ACC B10 ACC P8 P8 ACC SEC SEC B10 ACC B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 B12 ACC ACC ACC B10 P10 P10 SEC SEC B12 B12 ACC ACC ACC B10 B10 |
1953
1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1953 1978 1978 1983 1991 1991 1991 1992 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 2004 2004 2005 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 |
2013
2020 2020 1970 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2011 2020 2011 2010 2020 2020 2020 2010 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 |
Maryland
Virginia Wake Forest South Carolina North Carolina Duke North Carolina St Michigan State Clemson Arizona Arizona State Georgia Tech Arkansas South Carolina Penn State Florida State Texas Tech Kansas Iowa State Missouri Oklahoma St Texas A&M Colorado Baylor Kansas State Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Miami-Florida Virginia Tech Boston College Nebraska Colorado Utah Texas A&M Missouri West Virginia Texas Christian Syracuse Pittsburgh Louisville Rutgers Maryland |
61
68 68 18 68 68 68 68 68 43 43 38 30 30 30 29 25 25 25 16 25 16 15 25 25 25 15 25 17 17 16 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 1213 |
9
2 2 1 5 7 7 9 20 1 3 2 0 0 4 15 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 14 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 109 |
6.77
34.00 34.00 18.00 13.60 9.71 9.71 7.55 3.40 43.00 14.33 19.00 NA NA 7.50 1.93 NA NA NA NA 25.00 16.00 15.00 12.50 12.50 8.33 7.50 1.78 NA 4.25 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 9.00 NA NA NA NA NA 11.12 |
After joining a new conference, the average number of years between titles more than doubled from 5.34 to 11.12.