Mere Humanity
November 5, 2012
G.D.O'Bradovich III
1
A great manager once said “There are two types of people- jaywalkers and non jaywalkers.” One facet of jaywalking is not to be seen by law enforcement. The most integral aspect of jaywalking is not being struck by a vehicle. Successful jaywalkers are, by their nature, opportunists- They wait for the traffic flow to clear and make their move. Many people will go to the corner and wait for the crosswalk signal. I don’t mind walking, as there are several benefits. However, when one walks down town, there is always a chance or accident of running into people I’ve met and those I haven’t met who attempt to engage in conversation. Their prattling plus my listening does not equal a conversation, only a monologue. Since my moon is in Aquarius, I am horrible at remembering names- faces I remember.
Recently, I was stopped by this person and he started chatting away. For the life of me, I couldn’t place him. Once he mentioned a location where I was employed, I realized that he was talking about events from 10 years ago. He blathered on about someone having two kids and a funeral, unfortunately, not his own...tax dollars wasted on this person for work release or some nonsense. After this encounter (and countless similar encounters), I have decided that I will begin placing people systematically into categories
1) I remember your name-the significance of this recollection cannot be overstated
2a) I don’t remember your name, but I recall that you have a mind, i.e. you are intelligent
2b) I don’t remember your name, but you can harm or kill me, i.e. you are strong
3) I don’t remember your name and you have no mind and you are not a threat to me.
The later, Gentle Reader, is merely human.
Due my liking round numbers, let us assume that in ancient times there was 1% intellectual and 9% strong in our cities. I propose that this ratio remained more or less stable as late as 1900. With the benefits of the industrial revolution, the percentage of the elite in mind and body could decline with no drop or stagnation in the standard of living.
However, since the 1960’s and the growing service economy, our standard of living is declining. I attribute this decline not because it is service per se, but because of the percentage of the average and below average is much greater than it has ever been. Unlike mass production, services have no economies of scale. A doctor can only see one patient at a time. As of this writing (2012), our economy has been out of a recession for several years. Unfortunately, the total number of employees is still below the number employed in the year 2000, that is, for over 12 years there has not been an increase in the number employed, while the population increased by 23 million.
I predict that most of those who have lost jobs since 2008 will not find jobs. In the entire economic history of the United States, we have never had a situation like this, so why am I making a prediction that contradicts over 200 year of history? Never before in our history or in world history, has there ever been a “surplus” of people that need jobs-Marx’s sham arguments notwithstanding. In an agricultural environment, everyone could help on the farm and in an industrial era one could work in a factory. We have a service economy whose productivity can not significantly grow. Why are companies investing in technology that eliminates so many jobs? The easy answer is that companies are greedy for profits. This is not a new phenomenon or insight-so why are they doing it now in 2012 and not 30 or 40 years ago? Manufacturing has a high productivity and the number employed in that industry has been declining for over 20 years. The reason we are seeing more self serve kiosks in the service industry is that there are fewer people capable of taking your hotel reservations, scanning your groceries and making drinks at your fast food restaurant. Those industries may say that it is more convenient for their customers, but, Gentle Reader, when one hears convenient as it relates to the service economy, one should think “Fewer qualified people”.
With our ratio of the elite approaching one in a thousand or one in ten thousand, marginal people will not be hired. Service companies will be content to have longer lines and slower service times (think retail and fast food) than hire people (read-spend money) who are not capable.
Gentle reader, as the ratio climbs above 1 in 10,000, we will witness the country’s standard of living decline to a point that affects our manufacturing output and infrastructure usage-we will painfully return to our pre industrial status. Repairing roads and railroads is a service job. Our population will decline to the point where the elite and the masses return to their historical balance.
If capable people start to disappear, à la Atlas Shrugged...
I offer the following from the Census Bureau-
1800 5.3 million
1850 23.1 million
1900 76.2 million
2000 281 million
After our population declines by over 200 million (through starvation and disease), this experiment of the Modern Age will to come to its natural and inevitable conclusion.
Recently, I was stopped by this person and he started chatting away. For the life of me, I couldn’t place him. Once he mentioned a location where I was employed, I realized that he was talking about events from 10 years ago. He blathered on about someone having two kids and a funeral, unfortunately, not his own...tax dollars wasted on this person for work release or some nonsense. After this encounter (and countless similar encounters), I have decided that I will begin placing people systematically into categories
1) I remember your name-the significance of this recollection cannot be overstated
2a) I don’t remember your name, but I recall that you have a mind, i.e. you are intelligent
2b) I don’t remember your name, but you can harm or kill me, i.e. you are strong
3) I don’t remember your name and you have no mind and you are not a threat to me.
The later, Gentle Reader, is merely human.
Due my liking round numbers, let us assume that in ancient times there was 1% intellectual and 9% strong in our cities. I propose that this ratio remained more or less stable as late as 1900. With the benefits of the industrial revolution, the percentage of the elite in mind and body could decline with no drop or stagnation in the standard of living.
However, since the 1960’s and the growing service economy, our standard of living is declining. I attribute this decline not because it is service per se, but because of the percentage of the average and below average is much greater than it has ever been. Unlike mass production, services have no economies of scale. A doctor can only see one patient at a time. As of this writing (2012), our economy has been out of a recession for several years. Unfortunately, the total number of employees is still below the number employed in the year 2000, that is, for over 12 years there has not been an increase in the number employed, while the population increased by 23 million.
I predict that most of those who have lost jobs since 2008 will not find jobs. In the entire economic history of the United States, we have never had a situation like this, so why am I making a prediction that contradicts over 200 year of history? Never before in our history or in world history, has there ever been a “surplus” of people that need jobs-Marx’s sham arguments notwithstanding. In an agricultural environment, everyone could help on the farm and in an industrial era one could work in a factory. We have a service economy whose productivity can not significantly grow. Why are companies investing in technology that eliminates so many jobs? The easy answer is that companies are greedy for profits. This is not a new phenomenon or insight-so why are they doing it now in 2012 and not 30 or 40 years ago? Manufacturing has a high productivity and the number employed in that industry has been declining for over 20 years. The reason we are seeing more self serve kiosks in the service industry is that there are fewer people capable of taking your hotel reservations, scanning your groceries and making drinks at your fast food restaurant. Those industries may say that it is more convenient for their customers, but, Gentle Reader, when one hears convenient as it relates to the service economy, one should think “Fewer qualified people”.
With our ratio of the elite approaching one in a thousand or one in ten thousand, marginal people will not be hired. Service companies will be content to have longer lines and slower service times (think retail and fast food) than hire people (read-spend money) who are not capable.
Gentle reader, as the ratio climbs above 1 in 10,000, we will witness the country’s standard of living decline to a point that affects our manufacturing output and infrastructure usage-we will painfully return to our pre industrial status. Repairing roads and railroads is a service job. Our population will decline to the point where the elite and the masses return to their historical balance.
If capable people start to disappear, à la Atlas Shrugged...
I offer the following from the Census Bureau-
1800 5.3 million
1850 23.1 million
1900 76.2 million
2000 281 million
After our population declines by over 200 million (through starvation and disease), this experiment of the Modern Age will to come to its natural and inevitable conclusion.